Macroeconomic Confusion

Every day I read conflicting stories about our economy and our markets in the popular press. Months ago we were worried about inflation, now we are worried about deflation. Then, we thought that Americans were playing a perilous game of roulette by not saving for our futures. Now, we are concerned that increased savings rates could negatively impact consumer spending in an already declining economy. High oil prices this summer spelled doom for consumers; low oil prices today are crippling suppliers who locked in at higher prices. Good news drives the stock market downward and bad news seems to drive it upward. What do we make of this?

It seems to me that we are learning a lot about ourselves and our country during these times of economic turmoil. The historical standards that we used to rely on are no longer prescient, and the new culture of the market has not yet been created. As a result, our economy, our moods, and our markets are subject to wild swings - up 6%, down 3%, up 4.5%, down 5.2% - that are not likely to soften until we come to an understanding of what kinds of reasonable expectations will guide us into the future. What will acceptable rates of saving and spending be? Will the threat of $4 gas create lasting change in our driving habits and how will that affect domestic and foreign automakers? Will high unemployment rates cause the structure of our labor force to change so that workers gravitate to new, successful industries and away from older, troubled industries?

In the meantime, we are forced to have very real discussions about the things that matter to us at the national, state, local, and familial levels. Though the current conditions have caused a great deal of pain in this country, I would argue that the conversations that are happening in my household and yours, in my community and yours, and in my state and yours, are beginning to lay the groundwork for a successful, focused, and more secure future.

Last night I had the privilege of taking my four daughters (three of my own and my exchange student) to dinner. Looking for a topic of conversation, I asked them if the US government should help out US automakers by loaning them money in their time of need. Below is a summary of their thoughts.

Madison is my 8 year old third grader. She is a social butterfly and she thrives on relationships. She thought that the US government ought to loan GM, Ford, and Chrysler some money because it was a nice thing to do. She also thought it would help out those who worked for the companies.

My 14 year old 9th grader, Elizabeth, had the opposite opinion. As the oldest of the bunch, she is a rule follower and very much into justice and accountability. She argued that Chrysler, Ford and GM should have been more careful to begin with and that there is no reason to believe, given their track record, that they would use the money wisely. Furthermore, she wanted to know why these large companies with millions of dollars at their disposal did not foresee high gas and oil prices and the effects that they would have on demand for cars and trucks.

I suspect that most Americans would fit somewhere along this compendium. Isn't it refreshing that our children sometimes see things more clearly than we do?

Resilient Philanthropy

For those who are interested, please click here for the article on Resilient Philanthropy.

TSL: A Value Added Proposition

Jay Matthews is a long time columnist for the Washington Post who writes a weekly column about education. Frequently, I take issue with Mr. Matthews' points of view. His ranking of public high schools and his "Washington Post Challenge Index" are particularly offensive to me; however, I appreciate his ability to focus the national debate on education.

In one of his most recent columns, "Beware of the Easy School Fix," Mr. Matthews describes his introduction to a measure called Total Student Load (TSL) that has been the focus of William Ouchi's most recent research. Now, I don't know Mr. Ouchi, but I do know schools, and Mr. Ouchi's suggestion that TSL plays an important role in student success is right on the money.

According to Mr. Matthews, Mr. Ouchi writes in his latest book, "when a district has too few classroom teachers student loads per teacher rise to the point where teachers can no longer know their students well enough to establish a bond of trust with them. Without this trust, a teacher can neither establish an orderly classroom nor push a student to do his or her best, and the teacher's job often becomes frustrating and constantly stressful."

So, smaller TSLs lead to better student and teacher performance. Small schools should delight in this revelation; we have been preaching it for some time, and we are glad that researchers like Mr. Ouchi have taken the time to confirm our beliefs. Thank you Mr. Matthews for bringing this important research to our attention.

National Service

Tonight, Barrack Obama and John McCain joined a CNN crew at Columbia University to talk about, among other things, the idea of a "national service" initiative. Unlike many countries, the United States does not have a service requirement, military or civilian, and McCain and Obama both spoke very strongly in favor of establishing one.

What do you think? Do you believe that young people ought to be required to serve upon graduating from high school? Should high school graduates have to serve in exchange for scholarship aid? Should tuition loans be forgiven in exchange for military or civilian service? How will this initiative impact our families, economy and country?

Dancing the Dance

If Shakespeare is correct and politics makes strange bedfellows, what an interesting week this has been!

First, Barrack Obama, the candidate for change, picks one of the Senate's longest serving members as his running mate. To be sure, Biden brings to the ticket a sense of statesmanship and experience that Obama ostensibly lacks; however, Biden is the ultimate insider. He is so connected in Washington and at home that his son is mentioned as his potential successor if he and Mr. Obama are successful.

Contrast Mr. Obama's pick with that of Mr. McCain. By choosing Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate, McCain steals the thunder of Mr. Obama. The ultimate outsider, Mrs. Palin could not be any further from Washington unless she were from Hawaii! Mother of five, married to an Inuit man, supremely in touch with the people, and younger than Mr. Obama, Mrs. Palin looks to be everything that McCain's candidacy lacks.

To me, it looks like Obama vs. Palin and McCain vs. Biden. Won't it be interesting to see how this process unfolds?

If only we knew now what they knew then - or maybe not?

In 1895, 8th grade students from Salina, Kansas had to pass a five hour final exam that covered the subject areas of grammar, arithmetic, US History, orthography, and geography. The test consisted of a total of 50 questions and was administered orally; teachers evaluated the students on the content of their answers as well as their penmanship. Some of the questions seem appropriate for a modern day 8th grade curriculum, including:

• Define Verse, Stanza and Paragraph.
• Find cost of 6720 lbs. coal at $6.00 per ton.
• Who were the following: Morse, Whitney, Fulton, Bell, Lincoln, Penn, and Howe?
• Use the following correctly in sentences: Cite, site, sight, fane, fain, feign, vane, vain, vein, raze, raise, rays.
• What is climate? Upon what does climate depend?
  

Others seem completely out of place in today's schools, such as:

• Give nine rules for the use of Capital Letters.
• If a load of wheat weights 3942 lbs., what is it worth at 50 cts. Per bushel, deducting 1050 lbs for tare?
• Describe three of the most prominent battles of the Rebellion.
• Mark diacritically and divide into syllables the following, and name the sign that indicates the sound: Card, ball, mercy, sir, odd, cell, rise, blood, fare, last.
• Name and describe the following: Monrovia, Odessa, Denver, Manitoba, Hecla, Yukon, St. Helena, Juan Fernandez, Aspinwall, and Orinoco.
  

What do you make of this? Are we requiring less of our students? Does this exam provide evidence of a decline in the American educational system or are the needs of our students so different today that knowing the nine uses of capital letters is no longer relevant?

To read the entire exam visit the Smoky Valley Genealogical Society's website at http://skyways.lib.ks.us/genweb/saline/ and click on School Exam 1895.